Many Breeding Approaches Depend on Chance

There are a multitude of breeding theories that exist in today’s modern world. Some are more accepted than others. Some rely on mathematical figures, while others will tell you “breed the best to the best, and hope for the best”. The truth is, just about any breeding theory out there is capable of producing you a good horse. Maybe even a champion. After all, the thoroughbred is a hybrid species and will very rarely breed true to type. And because probability factors (chance) govern every mating, it is this reason that the “moon is in the right place” theory sometimes produces an animal of above average ability. Breeders sometimes get lucky.

Improve Your Chances Using Proven Techniques

What I have found to be truly remarkable in my 15 years of pedigree research is that some of the most successful breeders of the 20th century used very similar techniques to upgrade their breeding and racing operations. Men like Federico Tesio, Marcel Boussac and William Hall Walker were responsible for upgrading many female families’ and producing outstanding racehorses which became successful sires/broodmares. They treated each individual thoroughbred as just that, an individual. Each broodmare had different needs. Inbreeding, linebreeding, outbreeding and sometimes even outcrossing techniques were all used depending on the desired pedigree pattern. Remember, the thoroughbred is a hybrid species and will very rarely breed true to type, but, by duplicating influential ancestors in a pedigree, resulting in a large number of gene pairs being homozygous (alike), and reducing the gene pool or reducing the number of ancestors found in a pedigree, what we are really doing is reducing the chances for “genetic variation” to occur. This remarkably improves our chances of racing an animal of above average ability.

Why These Techniques Are Important

Without doubt the silliest and laziest theory is that there is no need to look beyond the parents or grandparents of any given foal. My research clearly shows that most top class racehorses are heavily linebred to influential ancestors beyond the fourth remove (generation). Even intensely inbred champions like Veandercross and Northerly. A perfect example of this is the mighty mare Sunline. If we were to look at just a 4th generation pedigree printout of her, all we would see is duplication of Northern Dancer via two sons (Danzig, Nijinsky II). Hardly convincing. However, when we look beyond the 4th remove we find “heavy” duplications of superior ancestors in the 6th to 9th generations which turn her pattern into a heavily desired one. But probability factors may not be kind to every foal born with this pattern. The resultant “dip” into the available gene pool where a foal inherits 50% of its genes from its father and 50% from its mother will be different even for full siblings. Although sometimes a superior pattern does produce 2 or 3 full brothers/sisters with superior racing class. In most of these cases the pedigree pattern is an outstanding one. Federico Tesio’s brilliant racehorse and sire Nearco is another great example. A 5th generation pedigree printout would only reveal duplications to St Simon, but a 7th to 9th generation printout reveals one of the masterpieces of modern breeding, including Angelica(sister to St Simon), heavy duplication of famous mare Pocahontas, and many other “special pedigree patterns” to siblings and close relatives. Imagine the thoroughbred world today without Nearco. There would be no Northern Dancer (Danzig, Nijinsky II, Nureyev), Nasrullah (Bold Ruler, Blushing Groom) or Turn-To (Halo, Sir Tristram).

Different Methods Used Depending on Certain Characteristics

We estimate that about 98% of broodmares need a return (duplication) of their influential ancestors to reach their full potential as producers. The remaining mares are a combination of intensely inbred matrons that can benefit from an outbred approach (where they are sent to stallions themselves inbred, but to different ancestors, or to already successful stallions where no significant duplications occur within 5 generations), and dominant mares that seem to be able to produce superior racehorses from a variety of different genotypes. These mares are usually from powerful female families and/or are products of an outstanding pedigree pattern.

There Is No Substitue for Quality

The next statement is without doubt the most important one to remember before embarking on a breeding/buying program: There is no substitute for quality. As mentioned, mares from powerful female lines are capable of producing outstanding progeny from a variety of different genotypes. Mares from “mediocre” families can be upgraded via careful selection of sire material. Mares from “weak” families are extremely hard to upgrade. Even if we design what we believe to be an outstanding pedigree pattern. Although through careful selection and patience even this can be possible.

How an Analysis Works

To give you an idea as to what takes place during an analysis, firstly, I extrapolate your mares pedigree back 10 generations and try to identify her strengths as far as dominant ancestors go. I try to find any ancestors that are easily duplicated in the majority of stallion material available. This is the first step. The vital part comes next, and that includes identifying “special pedigree patterns” that should have a positive effect when duplicated in a racehorse. These special patterns include any female family linebreeding to full siblings, 3/4 and 1/2 relations and any close relatives who are then searched for from my data bank of some 350 stallions. (Owners travel and price range can be taken into account)

We then end up with anywhere from 20-50 stallions that are worthy of further analysis. The next phase includes analyzing these stallions over your mares’ pedigree once again and narrowing the stallions down to about 10 or 12. This is the stage where everything is taken into account, including any inbreeding, linebreeding, pedigree structure and overall compatibility.

All the Stallions Found As a Result Are Beneficial

The end result is usually between 4-6 superior sire mates for your mare. The number of stallions can vary depending on your mares’ pedigree pattern, although it is pretty rare to not recommend at least 5 suitable stallions. We limit this to 6 because we have to feel confident that each selected stallion is capable of bringing out the best in your mares’ intrinsic potential. As you can see it is an exhaustive process where by the selected stallions have gone through an ultra filtration system and come through the other side. These are the stallions that in our opinion would best suit your mares’ pedigree pattern and are more likely to upgrade her progeny for racing performance. In some cases, relatively “cheap” or not quite “commercial” sires are recommended for well bred mares. Breeders should not be deterred by this (especially if they are breeding to race). All stallions are recommended for a very important reason, and that is as already mentioned, that they offer compatible genotypes that should bring out the best in your mares’ abilities as a producer. Besides, stallions recommended for these well bred mares were either top class racehorses or are underrated sires or both.

Commercial Value Has Nothing to do With Outstanding Champions

Genetics and Mother Nature cares nothing for how commercial a foal will be. Think about it. If it did we would never see champions of the caliber of Better Loosen Up, Vo Rogue, Veandercross, Rough Habit, Doriemus and more recently Northerly, Plastered and Sunline. All these champions carry outstanding pedigree patterns, yet none were considered “commercial” when they started their racing careers.

It is mainly the genotype (pedigree) in combination with training, nutrition, environment, will to win and mechanical soundness that determines whether a foal will run fast, not the price we think the stallion is worth commercially.